May 15, 2008

A Normal, Yet Unusual May

It hasn’t exactly been the greatest stretch of weather lately. Cool and damp. We have had at least some rain eight of the last nine days. Temperatures for the month are averaging close to normal so far and rainfall is running about 33% above average (that will go up the next couple of days).

However, one thing that has struck me as odd is the fact we have yet to have an 80-degree day this year. Now, the normal high right now is only 71 degrees. So, it’s not like we should be hitting 80+ every day. But I can’t find one time in the last 20 years of records when we didn’t hit 80 degrees at least once during the month of May. Last year alone we had 16 days at 80 degrees or above…12 in a row to close out the month.

This year we have had zero, and the extended forecast isn’t looking overly promising through Memorial Day weekend. Granted, it could still happen, but if you’ve been thinking it’s been a cool May . . . in a way you’d be right.

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May 7, 2008

Copious Amounts Of Rain

I stole copious from our chief, Mike LaPoint. My verbal SAT scores weren’t that strong. Kidding.

We’ve been a little behind in the rainfall department the last month, but we should fill up the buckets over the next couple of days. Rain is in the offing Thursday, Friday, Sunday (sorry Mom) and Monday. The next couple of days could see some heavy amounts of rain. Take a look at the precipitation forecast from the National Hydrometeorlogical Prediction Center. That’s nearly 2” of rain for our area through Saturday afternoon. Some areas, especially in the mountains will probably pick up close to 3” by the time we get to Mother’s Day.

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May 5, 2008

Light At The End Of The Tunnel

Well, here’s some good news as we head toward summer.

May is the last month (until November) that we have more cloudy days in Pittsburgh than clear/partly cloudy days. We always joke how cloudy it is around here from November – April. And we realize that it really isn’t a joke.

Thanks to many variables including Lake Erie – we are pretty sun-free from late-fall to mid-spring. I took this data from www.cityrating.com

MONTH ------CLOUDY DAYS ----CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY

January-----------22-------------- 9
February----------20-------------- 8
March-------------20-------------- 11
April---------------18-------------- 12
May----------------17-------------- 14
June----------------13-------------- 17
July-----------------13-------------- 18
August--------------12------------- 19
September---------13-------------- 17
October-------------14-------------- 17
November---------- 20------------- 10
December---------- 23------------- 8

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April 29, 2008

Cold, But Not Shocking

I’ve always been amazed how people react to the weather when it’s a little abnormal. Maybe I’ll start keeping track of comments I hear from people, just at the station, and blog about them. What I’m getting at is the Frost Advisory that has been issued for tonight for part of the area.

I’ve only been in the building about two hours and already I’ve heard the following:

“Wow, this has got to be the coldest it’s ever been this late in the season!” Ahh, we’ve actually dropped to 32 degrees or colder as late as May 24. It happened in 1963. Our latest frost according to the National Weather Service website has been May 29. That’s more than a month away.

“I thought it was safe to plant when we hit 70 (degrees) a few weeks ago.” Huh!?!?!? Would you have planted all your flowers on January 31, 2002, when it made it to 72 degrees??? OK, now I’m being silly, but you see my point. The AVERAGE date of the last frost in the area is April 21, so you have to give a little leeway – at least by a week or so.

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April 25, 2008

Frosty Nights Ahead

We’ve been alluding to a big cool down for the last week of April -- and it is going to be BIG. Overnight lows will probably be flirting with the upper 20s at least one night next week, if not two nights. The best chance of seeing temperatures in the upper 20s is away from the city of Pittsburgh. I also wouldn’t be surprised if some snowflakes were flying Monday night or Tuesday night in the mountains and possibly north of I-80.

I saw a lot of people doing some planting last weekend. Get ready to cover the plants or bring them in for a few nights next week. Looking down the road, this should be the last frosts of the season. Another decent warm-up should be taking hold by the first full week of May.

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April 15, 2008

Pa. Earthquake

I have never claimed to have much interest in the “outlying” areas of meteorology (Astronomy, Geology, and Oceanography). Some people assume since we studied weather we love anything that has to do with the sky and ground. I couldn’t tell you the first thing about Venus rising or anything in-depth on meteor showers or tsunamis to save my life. However, something did peak my interest the other day as I was walking through the newsroom. The title bar at the bottom of the screen on MSNBC said “600+ Earthquakes Off the Oregon Coast in Recent Weeks”. WOW, 600 PLUS!! I mean, if that doesn’t grab your attention . . . and then the earthquake in Illinois last week.

Now, I am well-aware that western Pennsylvania isn’t exactly a hotbed of seismic activity. I do know that much. But I couldn’t help to think back to the “Big One”. Well, big by Pennsylvania standards. Who remembers the 1998 earthquake near Sharon? It was the biggest earthquake in Pennsylvania recorded history. It was a magnitude 5.2 earthquake that struck 15 miles southwest of Meadville. People felt it from Ontario to West Virginia and from northern Indiana to Syracuse, New York.

I was actually living in southern West Virginia at the time, but I remember paying attention to the stories since I was from western Pennsylvania. What do you remember about the September 25, 1998 earthquake that was centered about 75 miles northwest of Pittsburgh? I’d love to hear your stories. Always feel free to comment or ask questions. Maybe I can blog on something you want to know.

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April 14, 2008

Let’s Put a Wrap on It

I know this isn’t exactly going out on a limb, but I’m willing to concede the 2007-2008 snow season is done. Granted, it has snowed as late as May 31, but it becomes less and less likely past April 15. In looking at the next 10 days, temperatures should be above normal. So, then you’re looking at April 24, and other than the 1.6” of snow we saw on that date in 2005 it is very unlikely to see measurable snow.

So, how did Old Man Winter do this season? It was actually a very “normal” snowfall season. Normal, as far as total snowfall goes, but it was definitely the round-about way in getting there.

Month -- Normal -- This Season

November -- 3.1” -- 0.7”
December -- 6.9” -- 8.2”
January -- 12.3” -- 6.9”
February -- 8.5” -- 20.7”
March -- 7.9” -- 4.7”
April -- 1.5” -- *0.0”

Total -- 40.2” -- 41.2”

*If we do end April with no measurable snow it will only be the fifth time in Pittsburgh’s recorded history that we saw no snow during the month. The last time it happened was 1998.

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April 9, 2008

Severe Storms Friday?

A few areas have already seen some severe weather this year, but we could be looking at our first widespread area of strong thunderstorms on Friday. It’s all a matter of timing though.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, put most of our area in the slight risk severe weather for Friday on Wednesday morning.

The biggest concerns with these storms would be damaging wind gusts and some hail. This is a pretty strong cold front that is going to come through Friday night. If the timing is just right (late afternoon – early evening) we could have a pretty good round of storms. And behind the front it will turn much colder. There will be a nearly 30 degree swing in daytime highs from Friday to Sunday. And some of our area could even see some snow showers by Sunday night.

Stay tuned to Channel 11 News, Channel 11's Weather Plus and WPXI.com for weather coverage during the day Friday if these storms do develop.

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April 3, 2008

70 Degrees Next Week?

Would you believe we haven’t seen 70 degrees yet this year? 69 is the warmest high temperature so far in 2008, and that was on January 8. YES, JANUARY 8!!! What kind of a weather world do we live in where there are as many 60-degree plus days in January as there are in March? There were three of them each month. And don’t give me global warming as the argument. With that rational it would have been 80 degrees a number of times in March this year. Last March we had five 70-degree plus days. This year = none.

Now, while I’m not overly excited about the prospect yet, 70 degrees is not out of the realm of possibility next week. A few of the computer models have a huge storm cutting up through the central plains next week. The result would be a very strong flow of southerly air for us middle to latter part of the week. That could boost us up near the 70-degree mark for a day or two. Let me repeat . . . a day or two. I still don’t think we’re quite to full-fledged, blow-torch spring weather.

What unusual stretch of temperatures can you remember? I’d like to hear from you. Please feel free to send us your comments and feel free to ask any weather questions. We’d love to tackle some of them.

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April 2, 2008

Planting Season – Not Quite Yet:

One of my coworkers asked me if he could put some new plants out this weekend. It goes back to what I was talking about a few posts ago. When the calendar hits April, everyone is ready to get their green thumb in full gear.

According to the National Weather Service, the average date for the last killing frost in Pittsburgh is April 21. You can probably add a couple of days to that if you live north of Route 422 or in the Laurel Highlands. So, we still have a few weeks to go before we even start getting out of the woods. Obviously, we can get frost after April 21. That is just the average date for the last killing frost.

Of course, you can plant whenever you want as long as you’re willing to cover your plants on colder nights. That is way too much work for me.

When do you usually do your planting? How do you protect your plants on cold nights? Feel free to share your ideas with us.

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March 27, 2008

The $64,000 Question:

Are we done with snow? It’s funny. You don’t have to have a background in weather to have a “professional” opinion. Even my family said on Easter, “At least we’re done with snow this year.” Ahh, it snowed the next day.

The straight truth . . . it will probably snow at least once or twice more. Forget the meteorological reasoning I’ll get into that in a second. Fact is . . . it’s only March. Only FOUR times since records have been kept (1880s) have we gone through April without at least seeing flurries. The last time we didn’t see snow in April was ten years ago in 1998. And it’s only happened twice in the last 40 years. I remember waking up in high school one year with about seven inches on the ground the day after Easter. Easter was April 6 or 7 that year.

So, odds are we’ll see snow. And the long-range computer models are backing me up. Yes, we’re going to see a warm-up the first few days of April. However, one of the long-range models has us nearly 15 degrees below average during part of the week of April 7. That would mean highs in the low 40s and low temperatures in the low 20s. You throw any moisture in here at that time and there’s your snow. It might not be three, four, five inches of snow – but we’re a long way from calling it spring!

What are some of your memories from April snowfalls of the past? Feel free to share them with me.

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March 25, 2008

Spring Must Be Lost:

That is the only logical explanation. Since spring sprung last week our temperatures have been more than eight degrees below average, we haven’t had a high temperature warmer than 43 degrees and it has snowed three of the first five days.

We all tend to have this biological clock that goes off in March. It’s the “it can’t snow in March” syndrome. That is quickly followed by the “I know it’s only 35 degrees, but it’s spring so I’m going to wear shorts” mentality. I saw a lady running in shorts in the snow yesterday . . . very funny!

Well, while the next two weeks should be warmer than the last two weeks it is still going to average below “normal”. Sometimes spring does just magically appear. This year seems to be a very slow and steady climb out of the gray, damp, chilly abyss that has been the last few weeks.

We (Pittsburghers) always joke the sun doesn’t shine around here from November through March. Well, April is only a week away, and I want to see more than six hours of sun a week.

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March 18, 2008

Just Because It Says It’s Spring. . .

Spring officially begins Thursday. 1:48 a.m. to be exact. As usual, there will be no sirens going off . . . no confetti falling from the sky . . . no fanfare. However, when we think spring we often think the flowers will start blooming, and the trees will be full of buds in a matter of moments.

How ironic that Thursday, the first day of spring, will probably be our coldest “feeling” day of the week. I put quotation marks around the word feeling because it might not be the coldest day of the week as far as high and low is concerned. It should, with winds gusting to 30 m.p.h., FEEL the coldest of the week. We might even have a few snow flurries or a snow shower Thursday morning.

I talked about this the other day, and I’m standing by it. I’m not convinced full-fledged, consistent 60 to 70-degree spring weather is right around the corner. The calendar can say whatever it wants to say. The fact is, around here, just because the calendar says it is spring doesn’t mean it is going to automatically feel like spring. I’m thinking we should celebrate the first day of spring this year about April 6 or 7. That might be a bit closer to when it feels more like we would like it to feel.

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March 14, 2008

Can You See The Easter Bunny Through A Snowstorm?

I found myself laughing today when looking at some of the long-range computer models we use for forecasting. The accuracy of these things from ten days out is suspect at best. I wouldn’t base a forecast on them for anything. However, they’re pretty good at detecting trends for warm or cold and wet or dry patterns.

Well, I was clicking through the models that go out to the end of March and noticed a storm on the model about the time of Easter weekend. I went more in depth to it and went to one of the snow charts. It would definitely be a pretty decent snow for around here that late in March. Again, these things are “ballpark” ideas from that far out. The idea, however, is still valid to what I was talking about the other day. Spring is NOT just right around the corner . . . at least not any consistent form of 60s and 70s in the coming weeks. It also makes me wonder how Peter Cottontail would do without the aid of reindeer or a sleigh.

As always, please feel free to comment or on our weather blog page. Hope you have a great weekend.

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March 12, 2008

The Storm of The (Last) Century

Have you ever noticed the national news media dubs just about every storm, “The Storm of the Century” or “The perfect storm”?

This week marks the 15th anniversary of last century’s “Storm of the Century”, and this one is pretty legitimate. The Blizzard of ’93. If you lived anywhere in the eastern third of the U.S. you can probably recall exactly where you were or where you lived at the time. Pittsburgh saw 25.3 inches of snow from the storm over the three days from March 12-14. 23.6 inches of that came in one day on March 13.

The 23.6 inches is a single-day record that obviously still stands today. The 25.3 inches, however, is only third in Pittsburgh’s all-time “biggies”. Here are the top two:

27.4 inches -- November 24-26, 1950 (Thanksgiving weekend storm)
25.9 inches -- December 16-18, 1890

By comparison, our biggest snowfall so far this winter season – a mere 4.7 inches. Ahh, the good ole days.

What do you remember about the Blizzard of ’93, the Thanksgiving weekend storm of 1950 or your own memories? Click here to share your stories with us.

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March 11, 2008

Slow Crawl into Spring . . .

One of the necessary evils to choosing weather as a career is the “personalized forecast” for family members. Don’t get me wrong, I love doing them. I just know I’m going to get held to the fire a little closer than usual. My dad is the best at remembering what I said and didn’t say. So, when I called him today for his birthday one of his first questions was, “Is it still looking like snow for Easter?” He was remembering a conversation from October when we were discussing the upcoming winter. I told him the way the pattern was setting up there was probably a better chance of a White Thanksgiving and White Easter than a White Christmas.

You might have noticed winter seems to be in no hurry to leave. February was just 4.7 inches shy of being the snowiest February in Pittsburgh history. March is currently on pace to be snowier and colder than usual, too. Remember when winter started in December and ended at the beginning of March? Well, for the third year in a row the coldest part of the winter (compared to average) is going to come after February 1. Last year it was 37 degrees on opening day for the Pirates . . . ON APRIL 9!

It kind of brings new meaning to spring fever, and I believe we still have a few weeks to go before we can really say we’ve turned the corner this year. As we head through the second half of March temperatures look to be below average for the most part with above normal precipitation. That could still mean a few more bouts of snow as we head through Easter and toward April Fool’s Day. Some Joke.

So don’t put the snow shovels away just yet, keep the winter clothes out a few weeks longer and realize that your Easter bonnet might have to be a wool cap. It’s just going to be a slow crawl into spring this year . . . again. And if you’re keeping score, as my dad, it snowed Thanksgiving evening with no snow on the ground or in the air Christmas day.