With the Senate off for Thanksgiving week, the debate over Democratic health care legislation won't resume until next week, but that doesn't mean we can't handicap where it stands.

Democrats did take another step forward on Saturday night when they mustered the 60 votes to force the start of official debate on health care.

But there are a series of issues that could - on their own, or together - derail this bill, and at a minimum throw the debate into the New Year.

The modus operandi of Democrats in December will be to make it look like they are allowing a free and full debate, even as they are using the levers of majority power to wrap things up in a few weeks.

We'll get a good idea how "free and open" this debate is going to be by the middle of next week.

Don't be surprised if things start off very slowly, as Democrats try to figure out where the land mines might be.

"We're going to have dozens and dozens of amendments," said Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), who hinted that the GOP has been doing their parliamentary homework.

At some point, Democrats will need 60 votes again to shut off debate on this bill, and right now there are several who were part of that 60 on Saturday who might not be in a few weeks.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) is the most likely candidate to support a GOP filibuster.  He bluntly told reporters he's not even interested in a "trigger" for a public option - that he wants the whole thing out of the bill.

"I've been very clear about it," Lieberman said just minutes after the Saturday night vote, "I don't want to create another government entitlement."

Others in the mix include Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), who said if the bill stays at it is with regards to the public option, abortion and more, "It doesn't get my vote."

Then there is Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), who puzzled a lot of us by focusing even more attention on her as she waited to be the last Democrat to declare on Saturday night's procedural vote.

As for Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and her final vote, she's still on the Most Likely To Vote With Democrats page.  She will talk a lot in coming weeks about how she needs changes - and she does - but if she is voting 'no' in a few weeks, a lot of others will be as well.

It still seems unlikely that Democrats can finish this before Christmas.  But we'll see what happens in the days ahead.