Political experts: Abortion could play big role in Pennsylvania voter turnout this year

PITTSBURGH — For months, many Americans have remained laser-focused on the economy, inflation and rising gas prices as top concerns but with Friday’s Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, some political experts believe this issue may be big enough to turn the midterm election upside down.

“I didn’t vote these last couple of years, but I am definitely going to vote in the next one,” said Erin Butler, a Pittsburgh resident who said she now is motivated to vote after years of not participating.

She is not alone. The decision to overturn Roe v. Wade arguably may become one of the biggest issues, but with just months until the midterm election, experts said the impact is unclear.

“There is so much we still don’t know because we have never actually been here in my lifetime—having a right taken away,” said Dana Brown, assistant professor of politics at Chatham University and executive director for the Pennsylvania Center for Women and Politics.

A CBS/YouGov poll conducted on Friday and Saturday indicated that the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade was not looked upon favorably by much of the electorate. A solid 69% of those surveyed disapproved of the decision. But, will it motivate voters?

“I think we should expect to see a large turnout in this midterm election compared to previous midterm elections,” said Assistant Professor Kristin Kanthak of the University of Pittsburgh.

Analysts we spoke to said while pro-abortion Republicans might not switch parties, their votes have a huge impact on the election, particularly white women voters.

“We know too historically that these types of elections really are won out in the suburbs,” Brown said.

Experts believe the impact will be noticed, especially in the governor’s race.

“If you take a look at Doug Mastriano and Josh Shapiro, they could not be more different and clear about their differences,” Brown said.

Mastriano, a staunch anti-abortion supporter, wants to completely ban abortion with no exceptions. Shapiro, a pro-abortion advocate, has vowed to protect reproduction rights.

Both parties looking to use the decision to their advantage in the campaigns will have work to do ahead of the election, Kanthak said.

“The Democrats are going to start telling a story about how there is an out-of-touch Republican majority on the Supreme Court and the American way of life is in real danger,” she said. Additionally, “Republicans will have to have to grapple with what abortion policies ought to look like.”

The midterm election is Nov. 8, and experts said that is when the real political impact will be seen.

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