CRANBERRY, Pa. — For at least the next two years, Democrats will hold the majority in Harrisburg and in the U.S. Capitol.
It’s something Duquesne University political science professor Lew Irwin said polls accurately predicted leading up to the election.
“What we saw over the last two weeks was the polls were actually that lead for the Democrats was increasing,” Irwin said.
It’s what many political analysts call a “blue wave.”
But here in southwestern Pennsylvania, Democrats only flipped one state house seat.
Hadley Hass defeated incumbent Republican Valerie Gaydos.
Republicans like Congressman Mike Kelly and Guy Reschenthaler, and State Representatives Aaron Bernstine, Josh Kail, and Roman Kozak, all won their reelection.
Irwin said that “blue wave” still showed here despite some strong Republican wins.
“Mike Kelly won by a 63.5 to 36.3% margin back in 2024. That margin came down almost by 10% percentage points,” Irwin said. “You see a very similar dynamic with Guy Reschenthaler. His vote totals came down by about eight points. It’s just that those districts are drawn so favorably for those Republican incumbents that even though their vote margins came down, they still safely won reelection.”
Local Republican Scott Timko successfully flipped a state house seat back to GOP control by defeating Democrat Brandon Dukes by 575 votes.
Timko lost to Dukes by 98 votes in a special election in August.
That election saw just over 16,000 votes cast. On Tuesday, those numbers doubled, with more than 32,000 voters for that race.
“Turnout reverted to its normal level, even though the Democrats nationally and locally had significant turnout differentials in their favor,” Irwin said.
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