Severe Weather Team 11 Meteorologist Scott Harbaugh's summer 2016 forecast

PITTSBURGH — Make sure your air conditioners are in good working order.

The unseasonably cool weather of the last few weeks does not mean it will be a chilly summer.

I expect temperatures this summer, June through August, to average a few degrees above the average summer high of 81 degrees.

Just as El Nino was a major factor in us having a mild winter, a quick transition from a strong El Nino to moderate-strong La Nina usually signals a warmer, drier summer for our area.

That doesn’t mean every day will be in the 80's and 90's.  It simply means, as a whole, summer will be warmer than normal.

I expect Pittsburgh to record 16 90-degree plus days this year.

That’s as many as we’ve seen the last three summers combined.  An average summer in our area would have about ten 90-degree plus days.

We will also see a drier than normal summer.  Numerous dry spells of at least four or five days will be common, especially the second half of the summer.

However, a warm and muggy air mass can often produce slow moving “air mass” thunderstorms that produce very heavy amounts of rain in localized areas.

That will lead to periodic flooding issues when they occur. Most areas will average about two and half inches below normal in rainfall this summer.

So, good news for those who want extra pool time this year.  Temperatures will climb to near 80 degrees next week, and we should be off to the races.

More on “air mass” thunderstorms:  These generally single-cell thunderstorms are usually not severe, but they can produce heavy amounts of rain in short periods of time.

They often form in the heat of the day as warm, moist air at the surface rushes upward to colder air aloft due to uneven heating of the earth’s surface.

They tend to move very slowly and usually last for less than an hour.

Cox Media Group