Chief meteorologist Stephen Cropper gives his winter weather outlook for this year

PITTSBURGH — Most of us have a love-hate relationship with winter. We may love the idea of sledding, but we hate the idea of an icy commute.

A stretch of below-freezing temperatures in October may have you wondering if we're skipping fall this year and heading right into winter. Chief Meteorologist Stephen Cropper has been tracking the trends to see how this winter season could shape up.

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Cropper believes this winter could play out like the winter of 2014-2015.  We had a similar set-up steering the winter weather then, and we ended up with some record cold.

This year, it looks as if we're headed into another above-average snow season, with around 48 inches compared to an average of 41 inches, and colder than average temperatures. January and February will be the coldest, snowiest months.

Cropper said to prepare for several small storms in November and December, with maybe 1-2 inches of snow for each. If snow falls during a morning or afternoon commute, it'll mean delays.  Temperatures will warm up above freezing during the day, however, it shouldn't cause too many headaches.

Temperatures really could be the critical piece of the winter weather puzzle this year.

In his research on the effects of the changing climate of Pittsburgh, Dr. Philip Reeder-Dean, of the Bayer School Of Natural And Environmental Sciences at Duquesne University, has found that, in the long term, Pittsburgh winters may not be what they used to be. You might be wearing a light jacket in November and start missing your white Christmas.

"You think about the fact that we used to get off all kinds of days around Christmas for snow holidays," Reeder-Dean said. "It's something not happening anymore -- not to say it doesn't  happen, just not as frequently."

The climate is changing and warmer air can hold more water. That could mean more snow or rain.

"Some of the models I've looked at, some of the literature I've read, have said, "Yes, precipitation is going to increase,'" Reeder-Dean said. "But a lot of that increase is going to be in the form of heavier storms."

That will help the snow machine ramp up in January and February. Even though we'll see breaks from time to time, watch for wind chills to drop below zero, pushing heating costs up. That's what happened in February 2015, when the temperature hit a record 10 degrees below zero.

In the end, those long-term trends of warmer and wetter winters could mean less snow staying on the ground, a shorter winter season overall and an early spring. While we'll still see some snow in March, it won't stick around.

Cox Media Group