CMU asked to forecast spread of coronavirus

Medicine is one of Pittsburgh’s top industries, and on Thursday, we got an inside look at how one local university is forecasting the spread of the coronavirus.

For years, Carnegie Mellon University researchers have been working on models and forecasts to predict the impact of the flu. Now, the CDC wants them to put that effort toward the coronavirus, something we learned today is in its early stages.

Have questions about the spread of the coronavirus? We have an entire section dedicated to coverage of the outbreak. CLICK HERE for more.

Since 2013, researchers at Carnegie Mellon have been forecasting the flu season for the CDC.

“When it comes to COVID-19 it is much, much harder because there’s not much historical data to go on," said Roni Rosenfeld.

Rosenfeld is the head of CMU’s machine learning department and the Delphi Research Group.

He said predicting future trends without historical data is nearly impossible, but the forecasting could help prepare hospitals if coronovirus becomes widespread.

“These are the resources we’re very worried about running out of. If we know a few weeks in advance we’re heading toward exceeding our local hospital capacity, that’s a good time to implement more severe social distancing measures," Rosenfeld said.

While walking us through how the forecasting will work, Rosenfeld emphasized it will be hard to draw any conclusions from a single season of the coronavirus.

He said that will be made clear as the forecasting begins in the coming weeks.

“We need to be very, very careful about not only telling them what we think what is most likely to happen, but also expressing very clearly how certain or uncertain we are," Rosenfeld said.

He believes enough data will be there to make an impact in the coming months.

What you should do if you think you have coronavirus What you should do if you think you have coronavirus

© 2020 Cox Media Group